Dear Unborn Tyler

Dear Unborn Tyler,

Today is your due date. This means that today you are supposed to exit the womb and join your family in the world. We're not bad people. In fact, we're very good and nice people. Let me take a minute to introduce us. Sarah, your mother, is a kind, caring, and beautiful young woman who will nurture you, feed you, and make you feel better when you get a boo-boo. Claire is your sister. She is a 2 year old ball of energy who loves to laugh and smile and has been practicing caring for her brother's arrival by pushing Pooh bear in the stroller, putting him in your bouncer, and pushing him in your swing. She has promised your mother to help as much as she can, but unfortunately she still doesn't know how to change diapers. Actually, that is something you'll both have in common. Aside from giggling and playing, her hobbies also include going wee-wee and woo-woo in her pants. I'm sure the two of you can share stories and bond while filling your pants together. I, Brian, am your father. You are not my father; you are my son. William Sivitz is my father. He's not your father, he's your grandfather. The world is confusing with things like this, but I promise to help you learn these things, teach you to play sports, and to help you find your place in this world. So you see, the world is a cool place. We live in Maryland which is a state within a country called the United States. The USA (an abbrevation for the United States of America) is on a planet called earth within a solar system made up of 8 or 9 planets. There is some debate about the number of planets in our solar system. This debate is not because we lack the technology to find planets, but because of semantics. Semantics is an advanced concept, but I'll help you learn this too. Either way, please come out soon as we are all anxiously awaiting your arrival. Our original plan was to force you from the womb today through a medical procedure called "inducing" but the doctors seem to think that you should come naturally. It's too bad the world hasn't advanced enough to accurately predict a newborn's arrival. We've done pretty good with weather, so let me see if I can give it a try and assign a % to the chance of baby today. First let's explore the factors involved.. About 50% of second born babies come before their due dates and about 50% come after. Most babies come within 2 weeks of their due date and the shape of that curve is very much like a bell curve where the due date has a higher percentage chance than any other day. But then you've got to add in the factors we already know. Because you didn't come before your due date, the odds you'll come today actually go up. Probability change is a source of confusion and lots of fun discussions in our world and is sometimes called the "Monty Hall paradox", the "Bertranad's Box Paradox", or the "Three Prisoner problem". Read here for more info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem. Anyway, taking all of that into account, I'd put your odds of arrival today at roughly 18%. However, that only takes into account the physical, if you take into account the metaphysical you have to lower the odds. Since we really want you to come today, you probably won't. This is known as "reverse psychology". Also since both your mom and dad were born on the 11th of the month, you will more likely be born on that date. Additionally Grandma and Grandpa Koster won't be arriving until tommorow and you'll probably wait out of respect for them . Therefore taking into account both the physical and metaphysical, I put your odds of arrival today at 5% and tommorrow at 38%. Either way, you should come soon so that our blog readers can see pictures of you rather than suffering through more rambling posts like this one.

Love,
Dad